American stock market

Swing Alpha

There is no shortage of negative predictions about the American economy, but this one comes from someone who actually knows what he’s talking about. Mark Kolanovic, a top analyst at J.P. Morgan Chase, says that we’re heading towards financial disaster.

Where the economy is now

The stock market has been a bull market for a long time, and the market is heavily influenced by computers. A bull market means that stock prices are increasing, so investors are buying stock in hopes to be able to sell it for a profit.

Funds, where several investors pool money to have it invested by a third party, are big players in the market. Many of these funds now use supercomputers to automatically trade stocks based on algorithms.

Where it’s going

Although the stock market is a bull market now, it is showing signs of instability. Since 2015, there have been days where the stock market drops by more than 1,000 points. That means stocks suddenly decreased in value.

Kolanovic feels that the use of so many computer-based funds could turn another day like that into a disaster. These funds sell off stocks when triggers are met. That could result in millions of shares of stocks being sold on a day when the stock market is already doing badly.

Why that’s a bad thing

If such a large scale selling of stock was to happen, the stock market as a whole would lose value overnight and would not be able to make a quick recovery. The Federal Reserve, a government agency that controls money and interest rates, would have to respond with some kind of action.

If history repeats itself, the public would not be happy with any actions taken, and there could be protests and violence.